So after the swift victory of Donald Trump in the election for the united states and the surprising Brexit from the citizens of Britain, the next major event that might provides a great drama and impact on the market will occur next week, in a week from now the citizens of Italy will vote on structure change for their parliament, this vote can be one of the major junctions for the future of the EU market.
The goal of this vote is to execute three main changes in the Italy constitute as follow:
- It will provide the senate to be the main ruler.
- Minimize the senate from 320 to 100 members
- The senate will be the only one wo can vote no-confident motion against the government.
In other words, the goal of this vote is to allow the Italian senate to be more significant and influence.
In case the Italian people will vote No to the reform, it might cause a preliminary elections in the first months of 2017.
it means that the curent government might loose so the new government might bring ultimatum to the EU for an aid or they will declare a referendum on exit the EU, the same as the British people decided.
It’s a mess that will cause instability of the European Union itself.
Another major event will occur on the 14th of December which is the decision rate of the Federal bank of US.
It seems that the only factor that brings investors to put their money on the stock market is the lack of interest rates on other financial instruments.
Once the rate will rise it will increase the risk level to the stock market.
As for the upcoming week, let’s analyse and find the good stuff:
First, the S&P, it’s an all time high followed by an impressive uptrend, all of the prophecies of fury in cae Trum will win were turned out as false, it was only true for fe hours at the same date, but since we see only an increasing trend.
S&P Monthly chart
As it looks now, there is no reason for the S&P to switch trend, except some external effect that might change the trend, the S&P will keep in the same uptrend and new peaks.
On the weekly chart there is more to say before we see a breakout from bollinger and signs for reverting.
S&P Weekly chart
Here the situation is a bit different, the EUR is almost equal to USD, it was 500 pips close to that point.
Let’s take a look first on the monthly naked chart if the EURUSD
EURUSD Monthy chart
Now let’s see what we can do with this currency, if you take a look on the weekly chart while adding a bollinger indicator, it is now in between Bollinger 2.0 and 3.0.
The estimation is that the EURUSD will try to get closer to to the USD price, meaning 1.0000, yet, in case the EURUSD will thouch bollimnger 3.0 it might be a sign for a retrieve.
EURUSD Weekly chart
The monthly chart creates an head and shoulder template, in case the support line will break out it will cause a the AUD to initiate a downtrend where the targets will be the next support lines, 0.66, 0.619 and 0.551
Trump’s victory was a surpise for all investors expecially for the Gold where it broke out a strong supportive line, at this point it is worth to find a pattern or a trigger for a small retrieve, using bolinger bands might bring a nice trade.
Gold weekly chart
Have lots of good luck,